Monday, April 28, 2008

Abstract

The destruction caused by the global AIDS pandemic has sparked rich nations and international organizations to commit billions of dollars in AIDS-specific foreign aid to over 100 national governments. The provision of resources to address HIV/AIDS has exploded in recent years, dominated by three main donors: the World Bank Multi-Country HIV/AIDS Program, the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the United States President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief. Despite the massive AIDS-aid increase, I argue that HIV rates have continued to increase in many recipient nations, and that no significant correlation exists between changes in HIV rates and pure AIDS-specific aid. However under certain political and institutional conditions, pure AIDS-aid can be effective. OLS Regression of aid on changes in HIV rates, controlled for selection bias with a Treatment Effects model, reveals that in countries with certain institutional and political conditions AIDS-aid does correlate with decreasing levels of HIV. In response to the recent influx of AIDS-specific giving, this paper suggests that political preconditions of aid exist if the eradication of AIDS is to be financed with foreign aid.

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